Spring Training Ends, Time For the Prediction

With Spring Training officially over, and the baseball season officially getting underway in two more days, the time has come for me to make my official prediction for the 2011 season for your Chicago Cubs. This year, I have had to spend a lot more time looking over our team, as well as the other teams in the division before I could come to a decision as to what exactly we could expect to see out of this years club.

Looking at our pitching staff, I truly believe that we have a very solid starting five. With the St. Louis Cardinals losing Adam Wainwright for the entire season, the Cubs may very well have the best 1-5 staff in the division. Even with Wainwright pitching for the Cardinals, the Cubs may still have that honor; even though Wainwright is the best pitcher in the division. If they are given anything close to what can be considered legitimate run support, they can carry us to a very respectable record. If you read my blog on the pitching staff, you would have seen that this starting staff has the ability to win 73 games, again, as long as the team’s offense gives any sense of run support. The one pitcher everything depends upon? Carlos Zambrano.

The normally hot headed Zambrano ended 2010 with a bang, going on a very impressive 8-0 run. So far in Spring Training he has looked like he has decided to continue to pitch with the same vigor and passion that he showed when he came back from his anger management sessions. He is the lynch pin of the entire pitching staff. If he has success, he will lead our team in wins (an arbitrary stat which should not determine who the best pitcher is) and be able to put this team on his back and help carry them to a division title.

Speaking of run support, the Cubs offense has the potential to be strong, as long as everyone plays up to expectations and to their ability. However, looking at some of the key players on offense, you have to wonder if that is indeed possible. Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are who this team’s offense depends upon every year, no matter who else is on the team. The fate of the team, as long as they are members of the Cubs, will always depend on the success or failure of these two men. If you need any sense of proof of this, look no further than the past two seasons. Both players have both struggled to put up anything close to their career averages the past two years, and the Cubs turned in very disappointing seasons both times. Could this possibly be nothing more than a coincidence? Of course, baseball is filled with coincidences that people over analyze to death. However, I do not think that this is one that you can over look.

Both players have the ability to carry a team single handedly when they are in a groove. When he is on his game, there is no player better at the plate than Soriano, likewise with Ramirez when there are men on base. If these two are able to give us statistics similar to their  07 and 08 stats, the Cubs will be in great shape to make some noise in the division, and possibly make the playoffs.

If both the pitching and offense hold up the way they should be able to, then everything falls into the lap of the bullpen. Several analysts had given the Cubs high marks on the bullpen saying that they have a dominating bullpen, and maybe even of the best. Personally, I would not go that far, or even touch that statement. However, if we limit the bullpen to setup and closer, than yes, I feel we do have one of the best in the majors. With Kerry Wood, Shawn Marshall and the always exciting Carlos Marmol, there will not be very many games lost if you get them the ball with the lead.

One advantage the Cubs have this season, at least early on, is health. Every other team of significance in the National League Central can not say the same thing.

The St. Louis Cardinals lost Ace pitcher Wainwright for the season. The Cincinnati Reds are going to be starting the season without Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. The Milwaukee Brewers will be starting the season without their Ace Zack Greinke, who has a broken rib, and Shaun Marcum is having shoulder issues. To add on to the Brew Crew’s woes, they lost Corey Hart until at least April 6. The Cubs are the healthiest team starting the season, and that may very well play into their hands; at least if they are able to take advantage of the situation.

Well, the  time has come for my prediction for the season. As optimistic as I can sometimes be about how good the pitching is, and how strong the back end of the bullpen is, everything falls on just how good the team’s offense will be. Sadly, over the past two years, the offense has not given me any true reason to believe that they will be any better than they were last year. I know when I was looking over the individual position players I made some bold predications on what I would expect out of them, but that was based more so on what I thought they were still capable of doing, rather than what I truly thought they would do. As I said, the team and the offense will go only as far as Soriano and Ramirez takes them. Soriano and Ramirez are both getting old and have been injury plagued the past two years while their careers are in the decline. I will stand by what I said, if they are able to put up respectable numbers, the Cubs will be able to have great success. I am just not sure they are still capable of doing  so.

Unless everything clicks for this team, and the ball bounces our way just about every time, I can not see the Cubs doing any better than 85-77 and finishing in third place.