The first sacker: Carlos Pena

As we anticipate the potential free agency of the greatest player in baseball, Albert Pujols, we should not forget about the player who will be playing first base for the Chicago Cubs in the 2011 season, Carlos Pena. While he is not in the same league as the impressive slugger, he is not a bad option to have camping out at first base for your ball club.

While his batting average has continued to dip further and further into less than mediocrity over the past few years, his power and run producing numbers have not been hurt at all. As a matter of fact, his past four years have been his most productive years of his career. In that time frame, he has hit an average of 36 home runs and 101 RBI, which stands up there with some of the best sluggers in the game.

Now, in signing him to a one year deal, this opens up a lot of doors for the Cubs, as well as for Pena. For the new first baseman, this allows Pena to prove that he is fully healthy, after an injury plagued year saw his batting average slip below the Mendoza line, and saw both his power and run producing numbers to slip below the 30-100 (he wound up with 28-84) mark from the first time in the past four year mark. While those numbers would still be a big help to any team, they still leave you to wonder if Pena has anything left. That is where is benefits Pena.

While I do not believe in the contract year myth, though several do, I do believe in the redemption year thought process. I will give you that there are several arguments in favor of the contract year, Adrian Beltre is the primary example, there are just as many cases of people in contract years who do not have outstanding numbers; one such example is Pena. He did put up impressive power numbers in his contract year, but his average and on base percentage took a hit which would scare some teams away. They didn’t scare the Cubs away, but likely allowed them to sign him at a lower price than the power numbers would have suggested.

In this redemption year, Pena has something to prove, which would make him more determined to shine than he normally is. In an effort to not be a hypocrite, I will not back off of anything that I have said in the past. Players should always be fully motivated and determined to do the best job they can possibly do, but there will always be instances where you find that little something extra to help carry you to the next level. I believe that will be the case for Pena this year. I am not talking about a complete rebirth or explosion of stats, but a potential leveling out of his stats to some sense or normalcy. Signing the one year deal, allows him to get paid a decent amount for this season, with the potential to get one last big money deal for extended years after this season if he proves to be back to form.

Where this benefit’s the Cubs, is they now have a stop gap between first basemen. While they did not really have anyone in the farm system you would trust to play first base, at least not a young player close, free agency was the path to take. Because of his season long lingering injury, and dipping statistics, the one year deal is less of a risk than they would be facing if they signed him to a longer term deal. If he is a great success, and returns to a mid to high .200 batting average with 30-100 numbers again, you could very well re-sign him to a pretty good deal, and the potential that he could give you as slight discount knowing that you took a chance on him where others may not have been so sure.

This one year audition of sorts, also allows the Cubs the flexibility and opportunity to sign one of the pending free agent first baseman who will be hitting the market after the 2011 season. I fully believe that was the main reason why Pena was signed to a one year deal. There would be no one standing in their way of pursuing one of the two free agent slugging first basemen. While there was only one guy who we figured to reach free agency, Prince Fielder, now there could potentially be two with Pujols.

With the potential offense that Pena could bring to the Cubs, he also brings gold glove defense. With Aramis Ramirez always a threat to throw the ball away, and with Starlin Castro likely to do the same, you need someone over at first who can prevent those wild erroneous throws. Never under estimate the importance of a good defensive first baseman.

Because of his power, Pena will be batting in the middle of the lineup, either third or fourth. With the proper batters in front of him, meaning guys who cant actually get on base, he should have plenty of opportunities to drive runs in. This means a potential return to the 100 RBI plateau, which will be a massive improvement over anything we got from last year’s first sacker Derek Lee, which is another example of a player in a contract year failing to deliver breath taking statistics.

As far as what I expect to see out of Pena for 2011, I would like to believe we will see a jump in all his numbers. While this will not be impressive, I think Pena can bring his average back above the embarrassing Menzona line, and finish with possibly a .250 average, which sadly would be his highest average since his power surge began. As far as power and run producing, I would be surprised if those change too much. Expect a near 30 homer season and around 100 RBI, again this all depends on if people can get on base in front of him.